Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Mediocre the Magnificent Throws His Turban in the Ring

Carnac attempts to predict Georges Laraque's PIMs

Anyone who knows me or who has seen college videos of me knows I love to make an ass of myself and with that, I bring you my 08-09 season predictions!

Armed with a basic knowledge of spreadsheet programs, Yahoo’s NHL page, a six-sided die and a quarter, I entertained myself during the debate trying to find the dumbest way to predict the NHL’s standings for the upcoming season. Mission F-ing accomplished. I took it upon myself to meticulously chart every NHL team’s post season performance since the lockout. Of the many things I learned, it turns out when you plot 30 separate data sets it makes the graph look like a wild, colorful spider web. I personally think spiders are freaky. I almost dropped a load in my shorts a few years back when a spider the size of my big toe was defying gravity about three feet above my bed. I saw a tarantula the other day at this weird conference I went to and I’ve got to say that it’s a really boring animal. What the hell was I talking about…

I weighted each team depending on their performance in the post season then used the dice and coin to settle any ties. If I was smart I would have used the regular season standings since that is what I was trying to predict but smart = uninteresting as far as I’m concerned so lets keep rolling. I decided to put my predictions to the test and take on San Francisco hockey elitist Ross McKeon’s predictions… Ok, his was the first standings projection I came across that wasn’t friend-of-the-Palm-Isle Puckdaddy’s. Truth is, I don’t really know much about McKeon and this blog is in no position to pick a fight. Sorry for the whole ‘elitist’ comment… Visit Ross’s page here.

On to the predictions!

Mediocre One’s Ross McKeon’s

Eastern Conference

Atlantic Division
Pittsburgh Penguins Philadelphia Flyers
New York Rangers Pittsburgh Penguins
New Jersey Devils New York Rangers
Philadelphia Flyers New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders New York Islanders

Northeast Division
Ottawa Senators Montreal Canadians
Buffalo Sabres Ottawa Senators
Montreal Canadians Boston Bruins
Boston Bruins Buffalo Sabres
Toronto Maple Leafs Toronto Maple Leafs

Southeast Division
Carolina Hurricanes Washington Capitals
Tampa Bay Lightning Carolina Hurricanes
Atlanta Thrashers Tampa Bay Lightning
Washington Capitals Atlanta Thrashers
Florida Panthers Florida Panthers


Western Conference


Central Division
Detroit Red Wings Detroit Red Wings
Nashville Predators Chicago Blackhawks
Chicago Blackhawks Columbus Blue Jackets
St. Louis Blues Nashville Predators
Columbus Blue Jackets St. Louis Blues

Northwest Division
Calgary Flames Calgary Flames
Colorado Avalanche Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers Colorado Avalanche
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild
Vancouver Canucks Vancouver Canucks


Pacific Division
Anaheim Ducks San Jose Sharks
San Jose Sharks Dallas Stars
Dallas Stars Anaheim Ducks
Los Angeles Kings Phoenix Coyotes
Phoenix Coyotes Los Angeles Kings

Now, the truth is I hate predictions. Anyone doing a prediction (and taking it seriously, I might add) should have some stake in their prediction. The Sports Network (TSN) predicted that Ovechkin would be 5th in scoring with 50 goals. Turns out he was 1st with 65. That’s a pretty big swing, 15 goals, so what’s the sense in trying to guess if it’s obviously too hard? I’ve never seen accurate predictions so if some web site wants to predict stats and mess up my fantasy draft they should at least have the stones to write a big article at the end of the season and grade their projections as well as remind us at the beginning of the following season.

Then other people go too far in the opposite direction. I watched the NHL network’s preview of the Western conference and you’d think every team in the West is going to win the Cup this year. Say something negative, I’m begging you (Gary Green...). Yes, every team in the NHL is talented on some level but that doesn’t do anyone any good. Give us a simple “headed in the right direction” or “headed in the wrong direction” and back it up with some substance that goes beyond the moronic obvious observations which are all-too prevalent amongst hockey commentators. In fact, the following phrase should be banned: “…has a good relationship with the coach.” 99% of players have a good relationship with the coach so let’s can the heavy stuff. Everyone in the NHL wants to win but it’s a matter of who is on a team and the team’s overall strategy that affects 95% of a games outcome according to a stat I invented to make my point.

Since it’s late and I think my point has drifted a bit I just want to say that someone has to hold commentators accountable for their predictions. And I’d like to take up that mantle. In the coming weeks, I’m going to collect different projections of standings and stats and grade them at the end of the season. My prediction is that it’s too hard to make predictions.

2 comments:

The Rev. Zamboni said...

1. Post of the season so far.

2. Are you Ok?

3. This is genius.

4. Spreadsheets? Did the Internet run out of porn last night?

The Mediocre One said...

First, I had off today so I had P-lenty of time for both spreadsheets and porn.

Second, I'm more than slightly insulted that writing a decent post means that I'm not ok.